PEOPLE SMUGGLING BIG BUSINESS

A group of people thought to be migrants are brought in to Dungeness, Kent, after being rescued by the RNLI. (https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-vows-to-stop-small-boat-crossings-if-you-come-here-illegally-you-will-not-be-able-to-stay-12825860)

Labor has said people smugglers are “running rings” around the government’s efforts to stem the tide of small boats crossing the Channel after six migrants died and more than 500 others arrived on UK shores on Saturday alone.

Stopping the small boats is one of Rishi Sunak’s five policy priorities. His landmark Illegal Migration Bill, which would bar nearly everyone who arrives in the UK by small boat and other illegal routes from seeking asylum and refugee protection in the UK, is “central” to the government’s plans, said the BBC.

While such tough migration measures are “divisive across the British electorate as a whole, they are wildly popular among many of the crucial swing voters in Tory seats where Sunak is struggling to cling on,” said Politico.  (The Week, 8/14/2023)

HOW BAD ARE THINGS IN GERMANY?

So just how bad are things in Germany right now? Sure, the latest economic figures are pretty grim (even Robert Habeck, Germany’s impressive Vice Chancellor, described the current situation as ‘anything but satisfactory’), but look closer and the picture soon becomes more complex. Yes, German inflation is higher than the EU average, but it’s lower than in Britain. Yes, the economy is contracting, but factory orders are at a three-year high.

Likewise, although AfD is on the rise, recently winning its first district council election, its vote share in the last national election shrank by nearly a fifth, from 12.6 per cent in 2017 to 10.3 per cent in 2021. It’s polling more than 20 per cent (ahead of the SPD), but its popularity is already pulling Germany’s main opposition party, the CDU, back towards the right, and that’s surely no bad thing. If the CDU becomes a proper centre-right party again, how many votes will AfD get? Not enough to break through is my guess.

What do Germans think about it all? That’s rather hard to tell. On hundreds of journalistic assignments, stretching right back to reunification, virtually every German I’ve met has seemed incurably downbeat about its prospects, whatever the current state of affairs. Doom and gloom is their default setting. They invariably fear the worst. Inevitably, they even have a compound noun for it:  Weltschmerz (literally ‘world pain’).

As a joint Anglo-German citizen based in Britain, a frequent visitor to Germany without the burden of actually living there, I can’t say I share the negativity of my German friends and relatives. Unlike them, my Bierkrug is half full, rather than half empty. The elephantine German economy will lumber on from crisis to crisis, as it always does, and the CDU will lean right and re-enter government at the next election. Even those pesky hailstorms will disperse.

Meanwhile, here in Britain, this latest bout of bad news from the Bundesrepublik has been a necessary corrective – a reminder that Germany is just another modern industrial nation a lot like the UK, with similar headaches and aspirations (including a desire to control immigration). Germany is still much the same, thank goodness. It’s our view of it that’s changed.  (The Spectator, 8/17/2023)

————————————

Niger coup could be the beginning of the end of France’s influence over the continent, French president’s critics warn – by Henry Samuel in Paris, The Telegraph, 12 Aug 2023

France risks being “erased from Africa” because of Emmanuel Macron’s failed policies on the continent, the country’s senior politicians warned following the coup in Niger. The rebellion was the latest blow to France’s strategy in the Sahel as Niger, a former colony, was a key ally in its fight against Islamist terrorism in the region. France has about 1,500 troops stationed in the country.

Niger is also economically strategic as Orano, the French state-owned nuclear energy company, extracts about 15 per cent of the uranium from its mines for use in France’s vast array of reactors.

According to Jean-Herve Jezequel, the director of the Sahel project at the International Crisis Group, the Niger crisis was a sign that “the times of a strong French military presence in the Sahel is over.”  He added that there was “now also a question mark over its future in West Africa.”

This week, three Right-wing senators, backed by 96 MPs from various parties, took aim at the French president’s policy, asking whether France was doomed to be “erased” from the continent. They wrote in Le Figaro newspaper:   “Today Niger, yesterday Mali, the Central African Republic and Burkina Faso rejected France, French forces, French businesses.”

Meanwhile, they warned that Russian Wagner mercenaries had stepped in to help “all dictators or leaders who stay in power by uniting their populations against the former ‘colonial power’.”  (Daily Telegraph, 8/17/2023)

———————————————

RECESSION WARNING IN UK

Britain could “lurch” from high inflation into a recession next year, said The Independent. George Dibb, head of the Institute for Public Policy Research’s Centre for Economic Justice, warned that “there is a very real risk that a recession may soon overtake price rises as the main economic concern”. However, Rishi Sunak told The Times that Britons will feel better off next year. The PM said that he was “really optimistic” about the future and “confident” that inflation would fall enough to ease the cost of living crisis in 2024.  (The Week, 8/17/2023) 

——————————————–

Iranian Political Analyst Emad Abshenas:  Iran Has Enough Uranium To Produce 15 Nuclear Bombs (8/14/2023)

The Islamic State’s rise in Afghanistan

In 2017, the Trump administration declared that the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq had been defeated. But a new UN report released this week claims that there are between 5,000-7,000 fighters across the Levant. And many more – around 11,000 – remain locked up in northern Syria, according to the UN.  At the group’s peak around 2015, it’s estimated that there were around 30,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria. Still, the latest report suggests that IS has been able to regroup and recruit.

Crucially, however, it’s in Afghanistan that the capabilities and scope of the Islamic State affiliate known as ISIS-K are expanding at the fastest clip, with estimates that the group now commands up to 6,000 fighters.

Since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan exactly two years ago, ISIS-K has terrorized the Afghan population and repeatedly attacked Taliban positions.  (For more on the ongoing beef between the Taliban and ISIS-K, both extremist Sunni groups, see our explainer here.)

The Taliban says it has been strengthening regional security, but Western intelligence agencies are increasingly concerned that a group that was once seemingly confined to the dustbins of history is slowly making a comeback.  (Gzero Signal, 8/16/2023)

————————

POINTS TO PONDER

• Donald Trump has told Ron DeSantis, his closest challenger for the Republican nomination to “leave the race” as his lead over him stretched to 43 points. A national poll put the former president on 58%, DeSantis on 15%, and Mike Pence, Trump’s vice-president, on 5%.  “He’s doing very, very poorly in the polls,” Trump said of DeSantis. “He really should leave the race.”  The Florida governor’s campaign is “scrambling to stay alive”, said The Times, while “every time Trump faces another indictment, his poll numbers – and fundraising – are strengthened.”  (The Week, 8/14/2023)

• Eyewitnesses said that gunfire and clashes involving migrants broke out in Dunkirk in the hours before a small boat sank in the Channel. “Chaos spread through the camp” on Friday as migrants prepared to board boats laid on by smuggling gangs “despite choppy waters and high winds,” said The Times.  An Afghan teenager told the paper there were clashes as Afghans sought places on boats. A vessel, overloaded with about 65 people, sank in the early hours of Saturday. Six people died and another five were taken to hospital in Kent.  (The Week, 8/14/2023)

• “Shocking” footage shows parents letting their toddlers play on live railway lines, young people doing one-armed press-ups, and dog walkers sitting their pets on the tracks for photos, said Sky News. The compilation of CCTV video released by Network Rail shows people risking their lives at footpath level crossings in Worcestershire.  The rail company said it found instances of “incredibly dangerous behaviour” at crossings. “No matter how well you think you know a crossing, all users must obey the rules around using level crossings every time they use it,” said Alexandra France, level crossing safety manager.  (The Week, 8/14/2023)

• Prosecutors in the US have charged Donald Trump and 18 others in a 41-count indictment for attempting to overturn his election loss in Georgia.  A leaked phone call, during which the former president asked Georgia’s top election official to “find 11,780 votes,” was at the heart of the investigation, which has led to Trump’s fourth criminal indictment. “Out of all indictments, Georgia is the most perilous threat to Trump,” said the New York Post.  Trump lost the state of Georgia to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election.  (The Week, 8/15/2023)

• Some 46% of Britons want a second Brexit referendum in the next 10 years, according to a new YouGov poll.  More than a quarter of people support such a referendum by the end of 2023.  Less than a third of people (30%) said they thought Brexit is “done,” while almost half (49%) said it is not complete.  The figures “suggest that if a referendum were to be held now, Britain rejoining the EU would come out on top,” said Beth Mann, political researcher at YouGov (The Week, 8/15/2023)

—————————————–

COMMENTARY

If you are like me, you are probably sick and tired of hearing the language coming out of everybody’s mouths.   This is particularly so when the speaker uses the “f” word.  

When I first arrived in Michigan, I remember a court case in the UP when a couple tried to take a small group of men to court for using the word prolifically.   I don’t remember the outcome of the case, but it was pointed out that it is illegal to use the word when others are around.  In this case, the couple were trying to protect small children.

It’s only going to get worse.   The reason I can say that with certainty is that parents think nothing of using it when in the presence of children.   The same parents would likely punish their young children if they used it, but it’s everyday conversation for mom and dad.

The “f” word is an ancient Anglo-Saxon guttural term.   We were taught at our school that when the Normans invaded in 1066, a lot of Anglo-Saxon words became swear words.  This may or may not be true.  (I don’t think this was a part of the curriculum!)

It wasn’t only the history teacher that influenced us.  Our English teacher taught us that the usage of such words reflected a lack of verbal skills, that swearing reflected a “limited vocabulary.”  In effect, he was shaming us into not using the word as a part of our vocabulary.

He is long since dead.  He was old when I was at school.  It’s probably just as well.   He would throw a fit if he had to have a conversation in 2023.

As for me, I believe in keeping things simple.   Matthew 5:37 tells us to “Let what you say be simply ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ – anything more than this comes from evil.”  Why swear?   The language is big enough that we can all express ourselves without swearing.

RUSSIAN INVOLVEMENT AGAINST ISRAEL

The London-based Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat cited an unnamed “well-informed” Russian source as saying that following talks with Washington, Moscow had got the impression that “Washington does not welcome the continuous Israeli raids,” and thus believes it has the freedom to act more aggressively to thwart them.  In light of this, the Russians were now supplying Syrian forces with more advanced anti-missile systems and know-how, making them more capable of shooting down Israeli armaments, the report said. (Israel Defense Forces, the Times of Israel)

“Therefore, son of man, prophesy and say to Gog, ‘Thus says the Lord God: “On that day when My people Israel dwell safely, will you not know it? Then you will come from your place out of the far north, you and many peoples with you, all of them riding on horses, a great company and a mighty army. You will come up against My people Israel like a cloud, to cover the land. It will be in the latter days that I will bring you against My land, so that the nations may know Me, when I am hallowed in you, O Gog, before their eyes.” Thus says the Lord God:  “Are you he of whom I have spoken in former days by My servants the prophets of Israel, who prophesied for years in those days that I would bring you against them?   (Ezekiel 38:14-17)

On Thursday it was reported that the Israel Defense Forces is planning to change its tactics in Syria and will base its operations against Iranian targets in the area on long-range standoff munitions rather than on airstrikes. Obviously, the move will downgrade Israel’s operational prowess.

The report of Israel’s new policy of restraint followed the big story of the week:  Russia’s announcement that for the first time, it had assisted the Syrians in intercepting four missiles fired by Israeli F-16s at targets in Syria.

Russia’s statement came in tandem with its announcement that it is abrogating its 2015 agreement with Israel to coordinate and deconflict Israel’s military operations in Syria from Russian forces in the country.

For Jerusalem, Russia’s decision is a major strategic blow.   (Caroline Glick, Israel Hayom)

———————————————————-

PROTESTS IN IRAN

Protesters chanted: “Cannons, tanks, rockets, the mullahs should get lost” in a protest staged in Tehran, video of which was posted on Kian Sharif’s Twitter account on July 26, 2021. Protesters also chanted: “Not Gaza, not Lebanon, I will give my life only for Iran” in another video posted on the same day on the Twitter account of Iran News Wire. In the video, protesters further chanted: “Death to the dictator!” and “From Tehran to Khuzestan, unite, unite!” On July 31, 2021, videos of another protest were posted on the Irankargar YouTube channel, in which protesters burned tires and blocked a road. Protesters also chanted: “Death to the Rule of the Jurisprudent!” and “The country has no water, the massacre continues!” The protests in Tehran come following protests in Khuzestan and elsewhere.   (MEMRI, 8/2/2021)

————————————————————–

MAJOR EXPANSION OF CHINA’S NUCLEAR FACILITIES

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — The U.S. military is warning about what analysts have described as a major expansion of China’s nuclear missile silo fields at a time of heightened tension between Beijing and Washington.

Researchers at the Federation of American Scientists estimate that China has approximately 250 underground missile silos under construction after they used satellite imagery to identify a new field being built in western China.

U.S. Strategic Command tweeted a link Wednesday to a story in The New York Times on the federation’s findings, which were published this week.

“The public has discovered what we have been saying all along about the growing threat the world faces and the veil of secrecy that surrounds it,” said Strategic Command, which oversees America’s nuclear arsenal.

The field in the Xinjiang region is the second one reported this summer. In June, researchers at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in California identified another field under construction in neighboring Gansu province.

China has not commented on the reports. Asked about the latest one, the Foreign Ministry said Friday that it was not aware of the situation.

The reports come at a time when relations between the U.S. and China have plunged to their worst level in decades. The two nations remain sharply at odds over a range of issues, including trade, technology, cybersecurity, human rights and China’s increasingly assertive foreign policy under President Xi Jinping.

The expansion of China’s nuclear force would likely factor into any U.S. calculations for potential military confrontations over flashpoints such as Taiwan or the South China Sea.   (“US warns China is building more nuclear missile silos,” Huizhong Wu and Jon Gambrell, 7/30/2021)

MANDELA’S DREAM FOR SOUTH AFRICA IS IN RUINS Following the imprisonment of Jacob Zuma, and at a time when inequality is worse than during apartheid, mob violence is threatening the country’s constitutional order. by Robin Wright, who is a contributing writer and columnist, has written for The New Yorker since 1988.  (She is the author of “Rock the Casbah:  Rage and Rebellion Across the Islamic World,” The New Yorker, July 28, 2021)

————————————————————-

CUBAN RALLIES

Here is the ugly truth: Biden does not care a damn about the Cuban people throwing off 60+ years of communism. Cubans are holding the largest anti-government rallies in decades. American media coverage has been near zero. Half of Biden’s White House staff probably does not understand what the president means by “repression,” admires Fidel and Raul Castro, and can be found wearing Che Guevara T-shirts on the weekends.   (“Betraying the Cuban people, again,” Chris Farrell, Gatestone, 8/2/2021)

————————————————————

NEWSLETTER – MANEUVERS IN EAST ASIA (II)

With its deployment of the frigate Bayern to East Asia on Monday, Germany is joining the rapid expansion of western war maneuvers in China’s close vicinity. In the fall, the frigate Bayern will conduct operations for monitoring US sanctions against North Korea and subsequently set off for home through the South China Sea. The UK Carrier Strike Group led by the new aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth had entered the South China Sea already yesterday, after joint exercises also with warships from India and Singapore. Following naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal in early April, the French armed forces have conducted joint air combat exercises with US jets in Hawaii this month and specially relocated several Rafale fighter jets to its overseas territory French Polynesia in the middle of the South Pacific. The US air force is currently holding a maneuver that experts view as a realistic trial-run for war with China under contemporary conditions. High-ranking US military officials suggest that war is possible in the near future.  (German Foreign Policy, 7/30/2021)

————————————————————-

AN ALTERNATE VIEW:   COVID VACCINE KILLS MORE THAN OTHER VACCINES

There are now more deaths and injuries likely due to reactions to the coronavirus vaccines than all other vaccines combined, according to numbers published by the CDC.

The numbers can be found in the Centers for Disease Control Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS). The latest numbers were released last Friday, the National Vaccine Information Center noted.

The latest report shows that there have been 11,940 deaths and 618,648 injuries among 518,770 cases, including 12,808 permanent disabilities, 65,272 emergency room visits, 40,873 hospitalizations, and 11,198 life threatening injuries.  It is acknowledged that these numbers are not all such cases in the U.S., but this database is the most comprehensive one there is. There were also 1,175 deaths of unborn babies following COVID vaccine injections.  (Warner Todd Huston, 8/2/2021, Flag and Cross)

————————————————-

TO THE POINT

• CALL FOR TAX ON MEAT – The founder of the world’s biggest plant-based meat firm is calling for a tax on meat to encourage people to cut their consumption of animal-based products.  Speaking to the BBC, Beyond Meat boss Ethan Brown said he is in favour of a “pigouvian tax.”  Past examples of such taxes include levies on tobacco and carbon. However, critics argue that a meat tax would raise the cost of living.  (The Week, 8/2/2021)

• CHINA:  Going into its second century, the CCP is not as invincible or as unified as it tries to appear, Schell notes. “Despite nationalist bravado about China’s ‘rejuvenation’ and success at nation building,” he writes, “the party’s ongoing obsession with control reveals a lack of confidence in the system it has confected.”   (Foreign Policy, 7/23/2021)

• NZ APOLOGIES FOR HISTORIC RACIST POLICING – New Zealand’s prime minister has issued a formal apology for historic racist policing of Pacific people, and offered scholarships to Pacific students. As some audience members at a town hall event wept, Jacinda Ardern said of the dawn raids of the 1970s that saw authorities hunt for visa over-stayers: “It remains vividly etched in the memory of those who were directly affected. It lives on in the disruption of trust and faith in authorities, and it lives on in the unresolved grievances of Pacific communities.”  (The Week, 8/2/2021)

• WELLBEING ON THE DECLINE IN ENGLAND – Analysis of data from the ONS shows that wellbeing in England has decreased in the last year while loneliness and mistrust in government has increased. Carnegie UK says “gross domestic wellbeing” has fallen to 6.79 out of 10 from 6.89 for 2018/19.  The number of adults in England feeling lonely has jumped by 44%, from 2.6m to 3.7m. Meanwhile, trust in government has suffered a 40% drop from 2018/19 to 2019/20.  (The Week, 8/2/2021)

• UK PM’S POPULARITY PLUMMETS – Boris Johnson has fallen nearly 40 points in a poll of grassroots Tory members after a challenging month for his government.  A Conservative Home survey found that the prime minister’s recent U-turn over self-isolating cost him 36 points. The news comes after an Ipsos Mori survey showed that public satisfaction with Johnson and his party had fallen to a nine-month low.  (The Week, 8/2/2021)

• FIRST REFUGEES ARRIVE – “The first flight evacuating Afghans who worked alongside Americans in Afghanistan brought more than 200 people, including scores of children and babies in arms, to new loves in the United States on Friday, and President Joe Biden said he was proud to welcome them home.”  (“Evacuation brings 221 Afghans to US,” Lansing State Journal, 7/31/2021)

• Hunger is expected to rise in 23 global hot spots in the next three months with the highest alerts to “catastrophic” situations in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, southern Madagascar, Yemen, South Sudan and northern Nigeria, two UN agencies warned Friday.  (“UN:  Hunger to rise in 23 hot spots,” LSJ, 8/1/2021)

• Germany’s grand coalition presses ahead with military re-armament. Ahead of Germany’s federal election on 27 September, the federal grand coalition government is pressing ahead with military rearmament. In its last sitting of the legislative session, the parliamentary budgetary committee approved spending for 27 rearmament projects with a total value of close to €20 billion at the end of June. The projects include major purchases for the navy, air force and land-based armed forces. According to an official report on the Defence Ministry’s website, the investments cover “a broad spectrum of land, air, naval, and cyber dimensions.” Some of the most comprehensive projects are listed here: https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/07/26/mili-j26.html  (World Socialist Web Site, 26 July 2021)

• CANADA’S G-G A FIRST – The Governor-General in Canada exercises the powers of Queen Elizabeth II in her absence.   He or she is appointed for five years.   The new G-G is a woman, the first time a Native Canadian has been appointed.  This follows scandals involving the Roman Catholic Church where hundreds of children’s bodies were found on reservations.  Some of this got blamed on the Queen and Queen Victoria.  

• CALL FOR WARNING ON FOOTBALL SALES – Footballs should be sold with health warnings, the scientist leading a landmark study has said.  Professor Willie Stewart of the University of Glasgow said the link between dementia and heading a football is now so clear that the laws of the game to be changed for amateur and youth football to reduce the risk of degenerative brain disease. The study found no evidence that the transition from heavy leather balls to synthetic replacements had made a difference.   (The Week, 8/3/2021)

ANTI-SEMITISM ON THE INCREASE IN GERMANY AND FRANCE

The premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, says anti-Semitism in his country is increasing from two directions: the far right and Muslim migrants. Police clash with right-wing protesters in Chemnitz, Germany. Credit: AFP

DW news (German news) highlighted the fact that anti-semitic acts in the Federal Republic increased by over 60% last year.   They added that France was worse, with a 70% increase.

At the same time, right-wing parties are expected to make significant gains in the election for the European Parliament, set for May.   It should be emphasized that most people in these parties are simply concerned about immigration.   But this could change.

—————————————————

A FRENCH VIEW ON AMERICA’S RETREAT FROM THE WORLD

“BHL (Bernard Henri Levy) … is a philosopher given to interpreting the world’s maladies.   He is in New York for the publication on Feb 12 of his latest book, elegantly provocative, “The Empire and the Five Kings.”   It describes “the new geopolitical order which is designing itself before our eyes” as a result of “America’s abdication” of global leadership.

“You have America going back,” he says, “retreating and lowering its flag, both on military and ideological terms.”   In Mr. Levy’s thesis,“ five former empires which we all thought to be dead and buried, are waking up again – Russia, China, Turkey, Sunni radical Islamism and Persia  (Iran).   We thought they were pure ghosts but no, they are moving again; they are dancing again on the floor of the world.”  They are rushing unchecked, he says, into the voids left everywhere by the retreat of the West, most notably under Donald Trump.”   (“The French philosopher who loves America,” by Tunku Varadarajan, WSJ, 2/9)

———————————————————

INCREDIBLE SHRINKING EUROPE

“Last week offered fresh evidence that the most consequential historical shift of the last 100 years continues:   the decline of Europe as a force in world affairs.   As Deutsche Bank warned of a German recession, the European Commission cut the 2019 eurozone growth forecast from an already anaemic 1.9 % to1.3 %.   Economic output in the eurozone was lower in 2017 than it was in 2009; over that same period, gross domestic product grew 139% in China, 96% in India, and 34% in the US, according to the World Bank.”   (“Incredible Shrinking Europe”, by Walter Russell Mead, WSJ, 12^th February).

__________________________________________

DEJA VU – socialism (again)

“If you’re not a socialist by age 20, you’ve got no heart; if you’re still a socialist by age 40, you’ve got no head.”   So said Winston Churchill.   It explains Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, at 29, very well.   But how do you explain Elizabeth Warren, aged 69?   Or Bernie Sanders, who’s 8 years older!

50 years ago, it was all the rage.   Students across the world wanted socialism, government control of the means of production (and everything else).   It didn’t work.   It made a much bigger mess of the world.   Thirty years later, people realized that instead of government solving the problem, the reality was that government IS the problem!

But now, thanks to young voters, we’re back to socialism being the solution to everything.

This year, a number of socialists are in the US Congress.   And they all have expensive ideas.   Medicare for all; the Green New Deal; a guaranteed job for all; a new system for corporate control; vastly higher taxes.   These are all part of the program.   The cost to the tax-payer would be horrendous.     A guaranteed job for all would make government even more inefficient.

That isn’t to say it won’t happen.

—————————————————-

Democracy in Africa?  What democracy in Africa?

Note from The Editor:   Branko Brkic, Daily Maverick, 20 January 2019

The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s Constitutional Court in the early hours of 20 January upheld the victory of Felix Tshisekedi by rejecting appeals by his rival, Martin Fayulu.   Fayulu has rejected the court ruling and called on his supporters to organize non-violent protests.

It is becoming increasingly clear for everyone to see:   Democracy in Africa is an idea to which almost nobody is subscribing.   Once more, another country’s clear majority chose its president, only for the land that was once Mandela’s to accept the clearly fake presidential and parliamentary results, people’s will be damned.   This time, it’s Congo’s turn.   So, why have elections at all?   The polls in Congo have come and gone, another one in the wall of denying the people’s true will.   The “results,” if they could be even considered that, have clearly been cooked.   (Daily Maverick, South Africa, January 2019)

——————————————————–

FIGHTING FOR THE KING IN AMERICA’S FIRST CIVIL WAR

Recently, I’ve read four books on the American Revolution.   All four books were written by Americans — and all four describe the Revolutionary War as “America’s first civil war.”   Indeed it was.

Most of the battles did not involve any British troops.   And for two years after the British defeat at Yorktown, fighting continued between Americans.   The conflict was between American Tories (Loyalists) and American Patriots (Rebels).   In some areas (notably South Carolina) 80% of the citizenry supported the Crown.   In fact, at one point the Patriots were ready to give up on the South as they were solidly loyal.

One thing is clear – the more conservative you are now, the more likely you are to have been a Loyalist!

Out of the war came three nations, the United States, Canada and Sierra Leone.   (The latter was established for slaves freed by the British Army.)   The war was not between America and England. Note the last three paragraphs of “Tories:   Fighting for the King in America’s First Civil War,” by Thomas B Allen:

“Within a year after the war ended, about 100,000 Americans left their homes.   Most of them went to Canada.   The rest chose England, Scotland or British possessions in the West Indies.   Within a generation the new Canadians had spread across the vast British dominion, taking with them the virtues and the visions that they and their ancestors had had as American colonists.   Granted large tracts of land, they transformed a wilderness into a vibrant nation.   Many became prosperous farmers or started mercantile dynasties. “Seldom had a people done so well by losing a war,” a Canadian historian wrote.

“Today, four to six million Canadians – about one fifth of the population – claim a Tory ancestor.   Many Canadians believe that their nation’s traditional devotion to law and civility, the very essence of being a Canadian, traces back to being loyal, as in Loyalist.

“Below the border live the people who started another country, built by Rebels.

Within a generation, those Rebels would begin to forgive – and forget – the Tories.   They would call the Revolution a war between Americans and the British, losing from their collective memory the fact that much of the fighting had been between Americans and Americans.”   (“Tories,” Thomas B. Allen, page 333).

This obscures the fact that the war saw brother fight brother, that neighbors fought each other.   We have seen this twice in our history.  Now, we are dividing again.  Could history repeat itself?

(The other three books are “Redcoats and Partisans,” by Walter Edgar; “Frontier Rebels,” by Patrick Spero; and “Scars of Independence,” by Holger Hoock.)

WHERE THERE IS NO VISION

This is a crucial weekend for Theresa May and for Britain itself.   The final Brexit proposals are on the table (all 585 pages of them) and parliament has to vote to approve the “deal” that will determine the UK’s future.

It hasn’t been mentioned all week on network television in the United States, but the Brexit deal between the EU and the UK is in its climactic stage.   By next week at this time, Britain’s future should be decided.   At the same time, Theresa May’s future will be clear – if she cannot get the latest proposals through parliament, there will be a “vote of no confidence” and her government may be gone.   The immediate future does not look good for Mrs. May or for Britain.

It’s been over two years since the British people voted in a referendum to leave the European Union, to once again be an independent nation as the United Kingdom was before 1973.   Membership of the EU has not been good for the British people. After 46 years, it’s time to depart.   But there are many, including the prime minister, who cannot see a future for Britain without the EU. Mrs. May voted to “Remain” in the referendum, but says she wants to honor the will of the people; however, she clearly wants Britain tied as closely as possible to Brussels and the 27-nation union.   She is fearful of the country going it alone!

Following the referendum there was talk of Britain becoming a second Singapore, a low tax, free enterprise economy that would boost living standards for the British people.  Singapore now has the highest per capita income in the world.   The irony here is that the city-state was founded by a British entrepreneur less than two hundred years ago, at a time when Britain had the most successful economy in the world.   The proposed revival has not gotten anywhere.

Note the following comment from yesterday’s Wall St Journal:

“Some Conservatives are nonetheless threatening another leadership challenge to Mrs May, and maybe this time they mean it. The Prime Minister’s withdrawal plan at least clarifies the choice. Mrs. May has reached this pass because she and much of her party have lacked the conviction to push for a Brexit that would require widespread economic reform at home and a Singapore-style free-trade policy abroad.   If Britain won’t have that kind of Brexit, business groups are right that the country needs to preserve as many of the benefits of existing EU ties as possible to compensate for the disadvantages of Britain’s high-taxing, high-spending, hyper-regulated economy . . .   Any Tory inclined to challenge Mrs. May will need a plan for persuading skeptical British voters to follow a reform path.”   (“The Best Bad Brexit Deal,” Wall Street Journal, November 15^th)

A famous proverb makes clear the problem here:   “Where there is no vision, the people perish” (Proverbs 29:18).     The people were not given a clear vision that would have launched Britain on a new course.   Instead, they cling to their generous welfare state and free medical system, fearful of change.   They “need” a deal with the EU so as not to rock the welfare boat.

Perhaps a different leader would have made a difference?   Jacob Rees-Mogg, a prominent Conservative, said only yesterday that: “Leaving the EU is the most fantastic opportunity for the UK.”   If only Mrs. May felt that way.   If only Margaret Thatcher were still prime minister.   Or Winston Churchill.   Alas, there are lots of “if only’s” . . . the reality is that the country and the ruling Conservative Party are very divided.

Surprisingly, the 27 members of the EU are not divided, not on Brexit anyway.   They have all given their full support to the EU’s Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, an uncompromising man whose inflexibility came up against the UK’s constant dithering.   He took full advantage of London’s desperate pursuit of a “deal” that will ensure the UK’s future as a “vassal state” of the European Union (the words of former Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson).

Mrs. May is quite a bit younger than myself, so I hesitate to describe her as an old woman; but, like many older people, she is showing timidity in this crisis, as her 27 immediate neighbors  on the European bloc treat her badly. She wants peace at all costs (“peace in our time” as Neville Chamberlain said eighty years ago when confronted with other continental bullies).   She is too nice to stand up to Messrs Barnier, Macron and Merkel.   But somebody is urgently needed to stand up to them – and opt for the Singapore option.

It’s interesting to note the contrast between Mrs. May and Donald Trump – the former lacks confidence in standing up to the Europeans; the latter is overly-confident, which is just as bad in its own way.   When President Macron announced that the new European Army will defend Europe against Russia, China and the US, Mr. Trump responded in a tweet accusing the French president of an “insult.”   A clear head and a determined resolve are needed here by the two leaders of the two English speaking powers.

The present scenario brings to mind the following prophetic words about Ephraim:

“Aliens (strangers, foreigners) have devoured his strength,
But he does not know it;
Yes, gray hairs are here and there on him,
Yet he does not know it” (Hosea 7:9)