February 8, 2024
As EU leaders gathered in Brussels for a summit on Thursday, farmers across Europe worked hard to get their attention – throwing eggs and starting fires around the European Parliament and using tractors to bring capitals and roadways across Europe to a standstill. Leaders are scrambling to address farmers’ concerns so that they don’t end up with egg on their faces in June’s European Parliament elections.
Their complaints: EU climate change regulations are costing farmers time and money, while climate-change-fueled disasters devastate crops.
Russia’s invasion led to skyrocketing fertilizer and energy prices, and now, with Ukrainian grain flooding their markets, farmers who were already feeling disadvantaged by cheap imports are voicing their exasperation.
What they want: Local grievances may vary, but on the whole: less red-tape and environmental restrictions, more subsidies (for small farmers, in particular), and less foreign competition.
Farmers want to reduce foreign imports by limiting free trade agreements, especially one with the Mercosur states – Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. French President Emmanuel Macron is under intense domestic pressure to push European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to blow up the deal.
EU elections effect: The protests could amplify a shift to the right in the European Parliament and imperil the EU’s green agenda. The far right, for whom farmers represent a growing constituency, is expected to make gains in the June elections.
In response, the European Commission announced it would curb Ukrainian imports, a blow to Ukraine’s economy and war effort, while France and Germany both watered down their proposals to end gasoline subsidies.
To address foreign competition concerns, Macron is pushing the EU to abandon free trade agreement talks with the Mercosur countries in South America. If he fails, it would give his opponent Marine Le Pen the advantage in France’s next election. Von der Leyen, meanwhile, would lose a powerful ally in Macron, a significant loss as she contemplates running for a second term. (Gzero Signal, 2/2/2024)
———————————————————-
BIDEN MUST KEEP TROOPS IN MID EAST
The priority now for the White House must be to strengthen its military presence in the region, not reduce it. Worse, the vacuum created by any withdrawal by US troops is sure to be filled by adversaries of America and the free world.
Any US withdrawal is sure to be seen, especially after the US surrender in Afghanistan, as America running away — again.
It would be folly of the highest order for the Biden administration even to contemplate a reduction of US forces in the region. With Iran clearly intent on pursuing its proxy war against the US and its allies, the US needs to demonstrate its determination to prevent Tehran from expanding its malign influence in the Middle East, rather than capitulating in the face of Iranian violence. (Con Coughlin, Gatestone, 2/2/2024)
———————————————–
EL SALVADOR’S ELECTION MATH: 2 + 90 = 71
You need three numbers to understand this Sunday’s presidential election in El Salvador.
The first is 2. Since taking office in 2019, President Nayib Bukele’s sweeping anti-gang crackdown has resulted in the incarceration of 2% of the country’s adult population. In US terms, that’s the equivalent of throwing 5 million people in jail.
The second is 90. The official homicide rate has fallen more than 90% since 2015, including roughly 75% since Bukele took office.
The third is 71. Polls show Bukele leading his nearest competitor by 71 points. He will cruise to victory in a free and fair election.
The meaning of this math: Bukele has been criticized by human rights groups for thousands of abuses. He has used the military to strong-arm congress and twisted the constitution to run for a second term. But ordinary Salvadorans are OK with it because their cities are livable again after years when the country was one of the bloodiest in the world.
It may be that his strongman tactics are planting the seeds for future upheavals. But for now, Bukele is seen – not only at home but by other right-wingers in the Americas – as the Salvador (savior) of El Salvador. (Gzero Signal, 2/2/2024)
——————————————————
ANGLO-AMERICAN PUSH FOR INDEPENDENT PALESTINE BAD FOR ISRAEL
Fears that the Biden administration’s bear-hug of embattled Israel is the prelude to eating it alive were dramatically enhanced this week.
On Wednesday, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said that the administration was “actively pursuing the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with real security guarantees for Israel.”
He was confirming a report on the Hebrew-language news site Walla that Secretary of State Antony Blinken had ordered officials to examine the possibility of American and international recognition of a “state of Palestine” the day after the war in Gaza.
A senior US official told the site that elements within the Biden administration are recommending a move towards recognizing a Palestinian state as a first step in a renewed peace process and not as the result of negotiations between the parties.
These “elements within the Biden administration” appear to be in lockstep with the British government. Two days before the report, at a reception in London, Britain’s Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron stunned observers by declaring that the British government was considering formal recognition of a “state of Palestine,” including at the UN.
“This could be one of the things that will help make this process irreversible,” he said.
It’s been clear from the start of the war in Gaza that both Britain and America are seizing on the turmoil to advance their obsession with a “two-state solution.” However, it’s one thing to press for movement towards a Palestine state. Unilaterally recognizing it crosses a red line.
Official recognition of a “Palestine” that doesn’t exist is part of the strategy of diplomatic warfare against Israel promoted by those who want to see the Jewish state destroyed.
Conceptually ridiculous, since it involves recognizing a “state” that has no physical form and no boundaries, it would remove at a stroke the necessity for the Palestinian Arabs to agree to live in peace alongside Israel. Instead, it would incentivize still further their rejection of Israel’s right to exist. (Melanie Phillips, 2/2/2024)
————————————————–
AFD MAKES GAINS
When Olaf Scholz replaced Angela Merkel as Germany’s chancellor in 2021, hopes were high, in Germany and beyond, that a shift to new leadership might reinvigorate the nation at the heart of Europe. The remarkable Merkel had led her center-right Christian Democrats, her country, and the EU through a series of crises during her 16 years in power. Scholz rose to the top three years ago by casting himself as both a steady pair of hands in the Merkel mold but also as a center-left leader with a progressive view of Germany’s future. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Scholz surprised many with the boldness of his response. The “new era” he declared in Germany’s attitude toward Russia and the countries still trapped in its shadow defied his image as a skilled bureaucrat without a strong public voice or vision.
But as Chancellor Scholz prepares to visit Washington this weekend, he faces a rising tide of criticism back home. The German public mood has grown darker over the past year, mainly because the economy is limping, and inflation has taken a bite out of both consumers and industry. Workers are angry. Business leaders are frustrated. And the coalition Scholz formed to win power – an increasingly uneasy partnership of establishment socialists, ambitious Greens, and the fiscally hawkish, pro-business FDP – is wearing badly.
The poll numbers speak for themselves. In January, the government’s approval rating hit 17%, a record low. Scholz’s personal popularity hovered at 19%, the lowest mark for any chancellor in a quarter century. Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) and Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) aren’t faring much better. Recent polls show the current three-party coalition’s expected vote total has dropped from a combined 52% in 2021 to just 32%. By itself, Scholz’s SPD is attracting just 15% support.
The center-right opposition, the CDU-CSU alliance, now leads the polls with 30%-34% of support. But Friedrich Merz, Angela Merkel’s successor as CDU chairman, isn’t much more popular than Scholz. Instead, it’s the far-right Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, that’s making headlines. Noisy recent protests in dozens of German cities make clear that the popularity of the AfD’s increasingly radical, openly xenophobic, anti-European, and pro-Russian platform has its limits, and all other parties now represented in parliament have pledged never to partner with them. But nationwide polls show the AfD’s support has grown from just 10.3% at the 2021 election to between 19% and 22% today. (Gzero Signal, 2/8/2024)
MISCELLAEOUS
“Shame on you,” says The Mirror as it leads on calls for Rishi Sunak to apologise after he joked about Keir Starmer’s position on trans people. The PM made the comment when the mother of murdered trans teenager Brianna Ghey was in Parliament. Ghey’s father has described Sunak’s words as “dehumanizing,” notes The Guardian. (The Week, 2/8/2024)
There are, of course, alternatives less than all-out war, and more than attacks on proxies. They involve the bombing of military targets inside Iran. These include sites used for Iran’s nuclear program, its naval bases and ships, its military drone production, its oil and gas facilities and its command centers. All of these could be accomplished from the air and sea without a ground invasion, and without the loss of American lives an invasion would risk. (Alan Dershowitz, Gatestone, 2/8/2024)
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague has largely dismissed a lawsuit brought by Ukraine against Russia. The ruling clearly runs counter to Western interests, now for the second time in just a few days. Kiev initiated proceedings against Moscow back in 2017. The charges were mainly based on accusations of Russian financial support for eastern Ukrainian separatists and repression of Ukrainian and Tatar minorities in Crimea. The ICJ does not share this interpretation of events. It merely accuses Moscow of insufficiently promoting the Ukrainian language in school teaching in Crimea. This major institution of international law cannot now be relied on to support Western claims. In response, Berlin, Washington and NATO have begun to work on setting up parallel structures. A special tribunal is to be established to condemn Russia’s attack on Ukraine. It is to be installed solely for this purpose, and thus exclude potential prosecutions for waging wars of aggression, in violation of international law, against Iraq or the former Yugoslavia. The West is effectively discarding the idea of equality of all states before international law. (German Foreign Policy, 2/7/2024)
During a visit to Pristina yesterday (Monday), Defence Minister Boris Pistorius confirmed plans to increase German troop numbers in Kosovo. In April, the Bundeswehr will deploy more than 150 additional military personnel. Germany has stationed soldiers in the former autonomous province for almost twenty-fife years within the NATO framework. Berlin and the West had promised to pacify the territory after the 1999 war of aggression against Yugoslavia conducted by NATO in violation of international law. Yet tensions have again risen sharply along the ethnic divide since a nationalist prime minister took office in Pristina in March 2021. He has instigated aggressive actions against Serbian administrative structures. Primarily in the four Serbian-speaking communities in northern Kosovo, these arrangements have so far been generally tolerated and have enabled tolerable coexistence. The entities are indispensable for the education and healthcare of the Serbian-speaking minority. In Belgrade there is some speculation about a possible return of at least parts of Kosovo in the event of a future shift in the global power balance. The number of states that officially recognize Kosovo is already declining. (German Foreign Policy, 2/7/2024)
Devastating wildfires tearing through swaths of Chile have killed more than 120 people, authorities said, as they warned that the death toll would continue to rise. There are currently 161 active fires burning across the country, according to the Chilean National Disaster Prevention and Response Service. (The Week, UK, 2/5/2024)
———————————————-
BIBLICAL COMMENTARY
“You have persevered and have endured hardships for my name, and have not grown weary.” (Revelation 2:3)
On a trip to Ephesus, I was able to walk through what had once been a neighborhood of houses and streets. Etched into a stone in front of one doorway was a symbol that looked like a fish. According to tradition, this may have identified the house as a place where Christians lived and met together for worship, prayer, and fellowship.
In Revelation 2, Jesus tells John to write to the church in Ephesus, saying, “I know your deeds, your hard work and your perseverance. . . You have tested those who claim to be apostles but are not, and have found them false. You have persevered and have endured hardships for my name, and have not grown weary.” Jesus’ followers in Ephesus are commended for holding up the light of Christ against the darkness of this world. The apostle Paul had earlier reminded the Ephesians, “Our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against . . . the powers of this dark world and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms” (Ephesians 6:12). Still today, the devil aims to harm the church until Jesus returns. Jesus commended the church in Ephesus for standing strong in defense of the gospel. God’s Word to us today remains: Be strong, know the difference between light and darkness, be wise and ready to “live a life worthy of the calling you have received” (Ephesians 4:1). (Our Daily Bread, 2/8/2024)