The prize is awarded only to living recipients. The question is, will Zelensky be alive in the fall? He himself has acknowledged that he is Russian’s “number one target,” and we know from tragic experience how Putin deals with his targets. They are poisoned, thrown out of windows and killed in other brutal and sometimes subtle ways.
Accordingly, the Nobel Committee should break with tradition, meet now and award Zelensky the prize.
This may not save his life, or the lives of heroic people of Ukraine, but it may make it just a little bit harder for Putin to incur the wrath of the entire world by murdering the holder of the Nobel Peace Prize. (Gatestone, 3/9/2022)
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Russia publishes official list of states it deems ‘unfriendly’ — Russian citizens and companies must apply for a special permit to deal with “unfriendly” foreign entities.
The countries, international organizations and territories considered “unfriendly” include:
“Australia, Albania, Andorra, United Kingdom, including Jersey, Anguilla, British Virgin Islands, Gibraltar, the member states of the European Union, Iceland, Canada, Liechtenstein, Micronesia, Monaco, New Zealand, Norway, Republic of Korea, San Marino, North Macedonia, Singapore, USA, Taiwan, Ukraine, Montenegro, Switzerland, Japan.” Russia lists Taiwan as being part of China.”
While Israel has publicly condemned Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, it was not included on the list. Israel has taken on a mediation role during the conflict, seeing Prime Minister Naftali Bennett flying to Moscow on Saturday to speak with Putin. (Jerusalem Post, 7 March, 2022, https://www.jpost.com/international/article-700559)
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GERMANY TO HIKE DEFENSE SPENDING IN FACE OF RUSSIAN THREAT
The German government has promised to increase military spending after defence chiefs laid bare the “extremely limited” resources of Europe’s biggest economy in helping to push back against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Finance Minister Christian Lindner said it was time for a “turning point” in German defence investment, long a target of criticism by Western allies. “I worry that we have neglected the armed forces so much in the past that it can’t completely fulfill its duties,” he said.
“Falling defence spending no longer fits with the times.” (The Australian, 2/25/2022)
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MOST COUNTRIES STILL HELPING RUSSIA
The western power’s attempts to isolate Russia worldwide because of its attack on Ukraine, have proven unsuccessful. Last week, at the UN General Assembly, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called on all nations of the world, to “now (…) take sides,” regarding Russia’s war of aggression. Although the General Assembly has condemned the war by a clear majority, most of those countries – unlike the west and its closest allies – are still continuing their cooperation with Russia. That is the case with China, as well as for India, which is resisting intense pressure from the United States. The countries on the Arabian Peninsula are not willing to increase oil production, to facilitate the West’s embargo of Russian oil. Similar standpoints could be heard from South Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia. Among the reasons were that the Iraq War and other armed conflicts waged by the West make the West’s protests of the war in Ukraine seem ludicrous. So far, across the board, the West has had no breakthrough. (German Foreign Policy 3/8/2022)
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“Isolate Russia” (German-Foreign-Policy: Own report, 8 March 2022)
The western power’s attempts to isolate Russia worldwide because of its attack on Ukraine, have proven unsuccessful. Last week, at the UN General Assembly, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called on all nations of the world, to “now (…) take sides,” regarding Russia’s war of aggression. Although the General Assembly has condemned the war by a clear majority, most of those countries – unlike the west and its closest allies – are still continuing their cooperation with Russia. That is the case with China, as well as for India, which is resisting intense pressure from the United States. The countries on the Arabian Peninsula are not willing to increase oil production, to facilitate the West’s embargo of Russian oil. Similar standpoints could be heard from South Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia. Among the reasons were that the Iraq War and other armed conflicts waged by the West make the West’s protests of the war in Ukraine seem ludicrous. So far, across the board, the West has had no breakthrough.
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Putin’s fears of a unified, stronger Europe are fast becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy (by Eli Stokols, Tracy Wilkinson, 27 Feb 2022) This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s brazen and unprovoked assault on Ukraine is fast turning his fears of a more resolute Europe, and potentially expanded NATO alliance, into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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Boring to ‘historic’: the awakening of Germany’s Olaf Scholz
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is often described as boring-but-reliable.
Often described as predictable and “robotic,” Chancellor Olaf Scholz has become emboldened since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, smashing policy taboos to steer Germany into “a new era” that could reshape its role on the world stage. (28 Feb, 2022 * Frankfurt, France24.com/AFP)
Just a few weeks ago, German media were openly asking “where is Scholz?”, slamming the Social Democrat’s perceived lack of leadership on pressing issues like the coronavirus pandemic and worsening Ukraine crisis. But Moscow’s attack on Ukraine last week has jolted the chancellor into action, culminating in what commentators have called a “historic” speech on Sunday. Scholz, who has only been in office three months, spoke with uncharacteristic clarity when he unveiled a slew of defence and foreign policy shifts that promise to upend Germany’s decades-long reluctance to raising its military profile. “The Ukraine crisis has changed the chancellor. And now he’s changing our country,” the top-selling Bild daily wrote.
Addressing an emergency parliamentary session, Scholz told the nation that “we are now in a new era”. In a country haunted by post-war guilt, Scholz assured Germans that they were “on the right side of history” as Ukraine’s allies. Among the headline-grabbing announcements was a pledge to earmark 100 billion euros ($113 billion) this year alone to modernise the chronically underfunded army, called the Bundeswehr. (France24.com, 2/28/2022)
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While the Russian army invades Ukraine, Putin has already quietly taken over another European country by Tristan Bove, Fortune Magazine online, 5 March 5, 2022.
Even as the world condemned Russian President Vladimir Putin for his decision to invade Ukraine, the country still has allies elsewhere. Some of these allies are housing thousands of Russian troops.
Last Thursday, Russian forces poured into Ukraine from three directions. From the east and south, they entered from Russia itself, or Russian-claimed territory. But from the north, the Russian army came through Belarus.
Russian troops and military hardware have been trickling into Belarus since January 17, for what were called joint military drills. By February, NATO officials estimated that Russian forces in the country numbered as high as 30,000. Now some officials are warning that the troops may never leave. (Fortune, 3/5/2022)
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After Ukraine, Europe wonders who’s next Russian target.
BELGRADE, Serbia (AP) — For some European countries watching Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine, there are fears that they could be next. Western officials say the most vulnerable could be those who aren’t members of NATO or the European Union, and thus alone and unprotected – including Ukraine’s neighbor Moldova and Russia’s neighbor Georgia, both of them formerly part of the Soviet Union – with the Balkan states of Bosnia and Kosovo. But analysts warn that even NATO members could be at risk, such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on Russia’s doorstep, as well as Montenegro, either from Moscow’s direct military intervention or attempts at political destabilization. Russian President Vladimir Putin “has said right from the start that this is not only about Ukraine,″ said Michal Baranowski, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Warsaw office. “He told us what he wants to do when he was listing his demands, which included the change of the government in Kyiv, but he was also talking about the eastern flank of NATO and the rest of Eastern Europe,” Baranowski told The Associated Press in an interview.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has said that “Russia is not going to stop in Ukraine. We are concerned for neighbors Moldova, Georgia, and the Western Balkans,” he said. “We have to keep an eye on Western Balks, particularly Bosnia, which could face destabilization by Russia.”
(A look at the regional situation: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-business-georgia-estonia-bc7d887d4a8bb59f58906459543b1fbe)
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The curious case of Russia’s missing air force
Experts had expected the invaders to use their planes to pick off Ukraine’s forces at will. (The Economist, 8 March 2022)
More than 60 new planes would be delivered to the Russian air force by the end of the year, boasted Lieutenant General Sergei Dronov, its deputy commander, last summer. These would include Su-30, Su-35 and Su-57 fighter jets and Su-34 bombers – as advanced as anything the rest of Europe has to offer. All had been “tested in combat conditions” in Syria, he assured the discerning readers of Krasnaya Zvezda, the official newspaper of Russia’s defence ministry.
Billions of dollars have been poured into Russia’s warplanes over the past decade. Between 2009 and 2020 the air force gained around 440 new fixed-wing aircraft, as well as thousands of drones. At the outset of war, it was widely assumed by defence analysts and officials that Russia would quickly destroy its enemy’s air force and roam freely over the country, using its air superiority to pick off Ukrainian forces at will.
Yet in the first two weeks of combat, Russia’s air force has played a minimal role. Air activity is difficult to track and Russian air strikes may have increased in both number and complexity in recent days. It is clear, though, that the Russian air force has held back its full capabilities. “Fast jets have conducted only limited sorties in Ukrainian airspace, in singles or pairs, always at low altitudes and mostly at night,” notes Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London. (The Economist, 3/8/2022)
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WAR IN UKRAINE A WAKE-UP CALL FOR ISRAEL
The famous neoconservative Irving Kristol once coined the term “mugged by reality.” It means that regardless of one’s theories or ideologies, sometimes the reality of a situation forces a dramatic rethink.
The war in Ukraine should certainly promote a reconsideration in Israel of a lot of positions which it thought of as “gospel” over the last two decades.
The first and most obvious is that we cannot and should not expect any international forces to fight for Israel or provide any type of defense should it be under attack. For too many years, Israel relied on a strange notion that international or peacekeeping forces should be placed in or along borders of conflict to keep the peace. (Karma Feinstein Cohen, Jerusalem Post, 3/1/2022)
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RUSSIA’S PRESENCE MEANS END OF DEMOCRACY IN AFRICA
Russia’s expanding influence portends a bleak vision for Africa. In effect, Russia is attempting to export its governance model – of an authoritarian, kleptocratic, and transactional regime – onto Africa.
This is especially problematic since there are at least a handful of African leaders who are more than happy to go down this path. Never mind that this diverges wildly from the democratic aspirations held by the vast majority of African citizens. (The Conversation, 3/9/2022)
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NATO has come together behind stiff economic sanctions against Moscow. Finland and Sweden, after decades of neutrality, have signaled a new interest in joining the alliance while more autocratic members of the defense pact have excoriated Moscow.
And in an effort to shore up Ukraine’s defenses, the European Union for the first time will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Sunday.
In short order, Europe’s leading powers have shifted into a position of heightened defensiveness toward Russia.
Oil prices have plunged after the United Arab Emirates said it supported pumping more oil into the Ukraine/Russia-impacted market. Following weeks of soaring prices, Brent crude fell by more than 17% after the statement by the UAE, a member of the powerful oil cartel Opec, said the BBC. There are reports that Iraq will also support increased supply. Sky News said a slip in the oil price could ease the outlook for motorists, at least for the next few months. (The Week, 3/10/2022)
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described Russia’s attack on a children’s hospital and maternity ward in the southern city of Mariupol as a “war crime.” In an address posted on Telegram, the president said yesterday’s air strikes were “the ultimate evidence that genocide of Ukrainians is happening.” The White House condemned the “barbaric” attack and Boris Johnson tweeted that “there are few things more depraved than targeting the vulnerable and defenceless.” Foreign ministers from Russia and Ukraine are meeting in Turkey today for the first high-level talks between the neighbouring countries since the war broke out. (The Week, 3/10/2022)
Moscow could be planning a chemical or biological weapon attack in Ukraine, according to the White House. Press secretary Jen Psaki said Russia’s claims about US biological weapon labs and chemical weapon development in Ukraine were false and an “obvious ploy” to try to justify fresh attacks, reported the BBC. “We should all be on the lookout for Russia to possibly use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine,” she added. The Guardian said Vladimir Putin “used the same false justification for brutal bombings in Syria” and pointed out parallels between the two conflicts. (The Week, 3/10/2022)
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“Biden [in his State of the Union speech] ignored the Afghanistan issue, especially in light of the confused [US] withdrawal. He was also cautious not to talk about relations with China so as not to provoke it. Biden’s speech confirms with full clarity the loss of a consistent strategic vision with regard to central issues globally. This is a sign of the loss of the prestige of the great country [the US]. Biden’s speech was a message of a historical recognition of the upcoming political defeat and the beginning of the birth of a new international order.” – Hassan Asfour, former Palestinian Authority minister, Khbrpress.ps, March 2, 2022. (Gatestone, 3/10/2022)
The Russian Ministry of Defense’s own media outlet admitted Tuesday that a small number of Russian conscripts (those drafted against their will into the army) had been sent into Ukraine, something that President Putin has repeatedly denied. It’s a further sign that Putin’s initial plan – for a swift takeover with professional soldiers – has failed. This could be politically dangerous for the Russian leader: conscripts going to Ukraine and possibly coming home in body bags is something that may have a more immediate impact on Russian public and elite opinion than any Western sanction or corporate departure from Russia. (Gzero Signal, 3/10/2022)
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TO THE POINT
- Putin has curated a long track record of turning Grozny to rubble, flattening Aleppo, devouring Georgia and Crimea, and now has been dropping cluster and vacuum bombs, banned by the Geneva Conventions, on civilian targets in Ukraine. His troops have also attacked and taken over nuclear reactors, and Putin has repeatedly agreed to humanitarian evacuation routes that, when people emerge, the Russians shell — all in sub-zero, dead-of-winter weather. The problem: if Putin is allowed to take Ukraine, it will result in further annexations in Europe. The failure to contain aggressive acts results in further aggressive acts. (Gatestone, 3/10/2022)
- The British public will be asked to offer their homes to Ukrainians fleeing the Russian invasion under plans to be announced within days. The Home Office has faced criticism for the slow rollout of its scheme to resettle Ukrainian refugees with UK families. Government sources confirmed to The Guardian that ministers are launching a hotline and webpage allowing individuals, charities, businesses and community groups to offer rooms to refugees with no family links to the UK. Those offering a place to stay will be vetted and have to agree to house a refugee for a minimum period. (The Week, 3/11/2022)
- “War reaches NATO border” is The Times’ headline today, which accompanies an image of the aftermath of Russia’s strike on a military base near Lviv, close to the border of NATO member Poland. The Daily Mirror says Vladimir Putin has “the West in his sights” and The Sun describes the attack as a “Putin blitz on NATO’s border.” (The Week, 3/14/2022)
- “Make no mistake: For Putin it’s not about EU or NATO, it is about his mission to restore Russian empire. No more, no less. Ukraine is just a stage, NATO is just one irritant. But the ultimate goal is Russian hegemony in Europe.” – Jan Behrends, German historian. (Gatestone, 3/14/2022)
- South Africa Remains The Most Unequal Country In The World: World Bank — South Africa is the most unequal country in the world, with race playing a determining factor in a society where 10% of the population owns more than 80% of the wealth, a World Bank report said Wednesday. (EWN / AFP | 10 March 2022)
- At a time like this, let’s remember the words of Jesus Christ: “He that shall endure unto the end, the same shall be saved.” (Matt 24:13)
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