Tag Archives: WW II

REPEATING THE 1930’s

Chamberlain (right) shakes hands with Mussolini after signing the Munich Agreement while Hitler and other European leaders look on, 30 September 1938. Photograph: Hulton-Deutsch Collection/CORBIS

It’s DEJA VU all over again!

The world is starting to resemble the 1930’s, which ended in WWII.

1) ITALY may not seem important.  But In 1922 the fascists came to power and Mussolini proclaimed a revival of the Roman Empire.   That was the beginning of World War II in Europe.   Fascism was a major force in a number of European countries in the thirties.

The country had an election last Sunday.  The result stunned Europe — two populist parties got most of the votes.   The two parties are widely seen as the equivalent of the fascist party that ruled Italy up to and during WWII.

This follows an election a few months ago that had a similar outcome in Germany.  The AfD there is now the main opposition party.   These parties in Germany, Italy and elsewhere in Europe are often labeled “far-right.”   They are all “populist” parties that have gained support at the expense of mainstream political parties.   They are anti-EU and anti-immigrant, as well as very nationalistic.

2)  There is increasing talk of a TRADE WAR on both sides of the Atlantic.   What started out as retaliation against unfair Chinese trade policies is spreading into a full-scale trade war between the US and the EU.   The Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 followed the stock market crash and put high tariffs on US imports.   It is considered a major development on the road to the GREAT DEPRESSION, which led in turn to WW2.  It is difficult to see how the western alliance can hold together with increasing conflict over trade.

Historically, trade wars increase unemployment;   while unemployment leads voters to turn to the right, becoming more nationalistic.   A trade war will strengthen populist parties everywhere.

3) GERMANY REARMING  — President Trump has been pushing  for this to force Germany to contribute more to western defense.   Germany now has a military presence in the Sahel,  Afghanistan, the Persian Gulf and Baghdad.  Germany is also at the forefront of calling for a united European military force.

4)  UK & GERMANY AT LOGGERHEADS — In 1938 the British government was seeking to appease Germany; it still is, though this time there’s no talk of war. Just TALK, TALK, TALK over trade following Brexit. It does not look good for Britain as I write.

5)   GROWING ANTI-SEMITISM.    There have been a number of attacks on Jews in France, so many, in fact, that French Jews are leaving in record numbers for Israel; the Polish parliament has passed a law that forbids people from claiming Polish involvement in the Holocaust, even though it’s known that 200,000 Poles helped the Nazis round up Jews during World War II and assisted in the extermination camps; thirdly, Iceland has just banned male circumcision, while other countries are considering it.   This action will affect Muslims as well as Jews.

6)  RUSSIA IS MAKING THREATENING NOISES UNDER PUTIN, just as it did under Stalin.   Could Russia and Germany repeat the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop pact?    Both China and Russia now have dictators for life.   A prominent spokesman for the Russian Orthodox Church is calling for the restoration of the monarchy in Russia.  He seems to have Putin in mind as Czar.  Whatever happens domestically in each country, the US will likely be in confrontation with both in the future.  In the 1930’s Stalin’s threats were ideological;  now the threats are just plain old-fashioned nationalism.

7)  AMERICA FIRST – in the 1930’s it was AMERICAN ISOLATIONISM, now it’s called AMERICA FIRST. And it’s not just Trump – America is focused on itself.   There is little foreign news on TV and most people just aren’t interested in what’s happening overseas.  It took Pearl Harbor to wake Americans up.   What will it take this time?

CONCLUSION

History repeats itself.  But it does not repeat itself exactly.   It remains to be seen how future events play out.  But the similarities with the 1930’s are definitely there.

There are, however, two big differences.

During the 1930’s the world’s only superpower was the British Empire.    This no longer exists.   There is also no Winston Churchill warning of the dangers ahead.   Without a warning message it is doubtful nations will make the changes needed to change course and avoid the mistakes of eight decades ago.

The above is a speech I’ve prepared for Men’s Speech Club  tomorrow.   I decided to post it to my blog.

 

 

 

 

 

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RUSSIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST

putin

While US media has been focussed on alleged Russian hacking of the US electoral process, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has strengthened its role in the Middle East.

The morning that America suffered a major setback in the Middle East, American news networks led on two deaths – those of actresses Carrie Fisher and her mother, Debbie Reynolds.   Tragic though these deaths were, developments in the Middle East put America where Great Britain was exactly six decades ago.

Before World War Two, the British Empire was the dominant power in the region.   Britain withdrew from Israel in May of 1948. Immediately, the Jewish nation was invaded by five neighboring Arab nations.   Miraculously, Israel survived. In those early days, it was not helped by the United States.

In 1952, as a direct consequence of defeat against Israel, Egypt’s King Farouk was overthrown by the military.   The new leaders soon seized the Anglo-French Suez Canal.   Together with Israel, these countries invaded Egypt but were soon stopped by US President Eisenhower.   This single event led directly to the dismantling of the British Empire.   In 1958 the pro-British King of Iraq was overthrown.   Britain was losing its remaining influence in the area. The country fought a war against rebels in Aden, withdrawing from the protectorate in 1967.

It was a gradual decline, with one setback after another.   Now, the UK does not play any major role in the Middle East.

Since Britain, America has been the dominant power in the region. During the time of the Soviet Union, the US and the USSR were rivals in the area, with Moscow backing Egypt and Syria.   Later, Egypt switched sides and allied itself with the United States, but Moscow retained its influence in Syria.   Iran was in the US sphere of influence until the Shah was overthrown in 1979.

The region has seen never-ending turmoil since the fall of the Ottoman (Turkish) Empire after World War One.   That turmoil shows no sign of ending.

The recent war in Iraq has left a big mess in the region.   At its root is the almost 1,400 year sectarian conflict between the Sunni and Shia branches of Islam. Until the US invasion of Iraq, the country was dominated by Sunni Muslims, even though the majority of people were Shia Muslims (the reverse is the case in Syria).   Following the US backed election in Iraq, the majority Shia now rule the country. This development has altered the religious balance in the region and is causing repercussions everywhere.   ISIS was formed to protect Sunni Muslims from the now dominant Shia.

In Syria, Sunnis have been trying to overthrow the Alawite (Shia) minority regime of President Assad for five years.   Enter Moscow. Russia’s backing of the Syrian president has enabled Assad to win. The US showed a great deal of weakness, refusing to get involved even when the Syrian government crossed the line and used chemical weapons on its own citizens.   Now, after months of fighting in Aleppo, the biggest city of the country, Assad is firmly in power and Russia is sponsoring “peace talks” with the rebel factions in the country.   The US is not invited to the peace talks. Russia now controls Syria.   To accomplish this, the country needs Turkey’s help. The two are pushing for peace in the country. Turkey, the second most powerful military power in NATO, is now working with the Russians to bring peace to the Middle East.

That’s two set-backs for Washington in just a few days.

A third set-back is in Israel.   The outgoing administration in Washington did not veto the latest UN vote against Israel, condemning the country for building new settlements for Jewish settlers in the West Bank.   Friction between the US and the only western style democracy in the region is unsettling, to say the least. This set-back may only be temporary as a new President takes over in the US in just three weeks, but that gives a few days for further negative developments.   Even the British have criticized America’s condemnation of Israel.   The State Department seems set on causing rifts with US allies in the final days of the current Administration.

Keep in mind, too, that Syria borders Israel on the Golan Heights.   What happens in Syria may affect Israel.   Perhaps that’s why Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went to Moscow in June, the fourth time in a year that he sat down with President Putin to discuss the situation in the Middle East.

The tables have been turned once again in the region.   Over sixty years ago, the UK was the dominant power in the region; since then, it’s been the US.   But now Russia is arguably the dominant power in the area.   The Russians are in alliance with the Shi-ite Muslims in Iran and Syria; they are also working with Sunni Turkey, which ruled the whole area prior to 1919.   At the same time, it seems that Israel’s prime minister is more comfortable with Putin than with Obama, with whom he’s had a serious exchange of heated words in recent days.

There’s even a fourth development that puts Russia ahead. Following the hacking scandal, President Obama expelled 35 Russian diplomats from the US; President Putin made it clear that he will not expel any Americans. This is a triumph for Putin in the propaganda war with America.

What lies ahead?   Remember that the Middle East is the primary focus of Bible prophecy with Jerusalem at the epicenter.

In the nineteenth century, there was no indication that the Jews were about to become an independent nation again.  Their period of self-rule ended with the Romans before the time of Christ.  Their rebellion against the Romans in the first century AD led to the Diaspora, a dispersion that scattered the Jewish people throughout the Roman Empire and left them scattered until fairly recently.   Bible prophecy showed that the Jewish nation would be restored and that happened in 1948.

Exactly a century ago, British and Australian forces entered Jerusalem in the continuing war with the Ottoman Turks.   At this point in time, a Jewish nation became possible.   The British were given a mandate to administer Palestine by the League of Nations.   This was an impossible task as Palestinians and Jews clashed repeatedly.   Eventually, the League’s successor, the United Nations, divided the territory up between Jews and Palestinians, the latter never accepting their loss of land.

 

 

A TALE OF TWO CITIES

Paris        Mumbai

At first glance, Mumbai and Paris may not seem to have much in common.

The first is the biggest city in India, formerly called Bombay.   The second is the capital of France.

Mumbai has seen a number of terrorist attacks in recent decades.   One of the most memorable was a series of attacks that took place on 13th July 2011.   On this day, there were three different attacks in three separate parts of the city, all within the space of a few minutes.   The bomb explosions targeted the Opera House, a bazaar and another locality.   They left 26 dead and 130 injured.

Western anti-terrorist experts have long feared something similar in a major Western city.

Paris may now be experiencing something very similar spread over three days.

Just two days ago, the offices of a French satirical magazine were attacked. Twelve people were killed, including two policemen.   A few hours later a separate attack on two police officers took place elsewhere in Paris, leaving one policewoman dead.   Reports are now coming in of a third attack, this time on a Jewish kosher supermarket. Speculation is that it’s the same gunmen (one man and one woman) who killed the policewoman.  They were holding at least five people hostage.  The city is now on edge. Jewish supermarkets are closing, fearful of further attacks.

Reports are now coming in of a possible fourth attack at the Trocadero Center near the Eiffel Tower. The Metro is no longer stopping at the center.

There are increasing fears that all of these attacks are a distraction and that something bigger and far worse is about to take place, involving mass casualties.

Why would Paris be the preferred target?   Why not London or New York?

No city is immune. Both London and New York have been attacked before. They have also thwarted many other attacks.   Recently, there were Islamic extremist attacks in Ottawa and Sydney.   All five countries mentioned are participants in the campaigns against ISIS and Al-Qaeda. Additionally, France has the highest number of Muslims of any European country and the satirical magazine has caricatured Islam and its founding prophet.

To what extent the terrorist attacks are coordinated is not known.   The attack on the magazine’s offices seemed very professional, but an interview this morning with a French neighbor of one of the perpetrators emphasizes the normality of the killers.   The neighbor commented on how one of the attackers was a good neighbor, always willing to help and particularly caring of the disabled and the elderly.

Certainly, so-called “lone wolf” attacks are being inspired by terrorist websites.

It maybe that the lone wolf attacks really are committed by individuals who do not work with each other. But a lot of lone wolves soon add up to a dangerous pack.

French police have just announced that all the terrorists involved in this week’s attacks belong to the same jihadi group.

No matter how good the security forces are in any country, terrorists still have the advantage of surprise.   Additionally, they have no fear of death. The two men who are on the run outside of Paris, not far from Charles de Gaulle international airport, have both expressed the desire to die as martyrs. Inspired by thoughts of instant entry to paradise and the promise of 72 virgins, they simply want to earn their reward by killing as many infidels as possible.   The writers and cartoonists at Charlie Hebdo were particularly reprehensible to Muslims who believe that it is a grave sin to depict the prophet Mohammed in any form.

Nothing should surprise us. Except, perhaps, the continuing naivety of western liberals, who are always quick to defend Islam in general and extremists in particular. When a presenter on the BBC’s Newshour (Thursday) talked over the phone with a resident of Paris, he asked the man in France what he thought was behind the terror attack that killed twelve French nationals. The man replied that it was due to France letting so many Muslims into the country. The BBC presenter was quick to interrupt and point out that the perpetrators were just two men and that the majority of Muslims could not be held to blame.

This misses the point.

The point is that France and other western countries did not have to fear terrorism from Muslim extremists prior to World War II as few Muslims resided in their countries. The current problems have been caused by lax immigration policies, whether in the US, UK, Canada, Australia or France.   Even now, this issue is not being addressed, in spite of huge demonstrations in a number of countries against growing Islamization.

It’s not only Paris that’s on edge.   The whole western world is on edge, fearful of when and where the next attack will take place. This is not only “A Tale of Two Cities” – dozens of cities will suffer terrorist attacks until our politicians wake up and effectively deal with the problem. Don’t hold your breath!

This is exactly what the terrorists want. They are trying to provoke a bigger conflict between Islam and the West, an escalated war, which they believe will be won by the Islamic world, soon to be united under a single caliphate!