Tag Archives: SIPRI

CONSERVATIVES WIN LANDSLIDE IN UK

Johnson, pictured on the final day of campaigning, ran a campaign dominated by the promise to take the UK out of the EU (Reuters)

Once again, pollsters were wrong.   And once again, conservatives benefitted.

The vote was supposed to be close.   There was a lot of talk of a “hung” parliament, where there’s not enough seats to give any party a majority.   This would have been the worst outcome.   As it was, the Conservatives won, as they did in Australia earlier in the year; and in the 2016 US election when every prediction was that Hillary Clinton would be president.

It seems that people do not answer pollsters truthfully.   Perhaps it’s because people are embarrassed to say they are Conservative, but vote with their wallets on election day.   Margaret Thatcher won every time and that was the explanation.   Well, whatever the reason, Boris Johnson won a landslide, the biggest vote for the Conservatives since Mrs. Thatcher in the 80s.

My home town of Grimsby, in the North of England, returned a Conservative MP for the first time in my lifetime.   Others did the same.   Partly, this was disillusionment with the Labor Party (socialists), who have promised much over the years, but delivered little.   This time, according to analysis on Sky News, they promised 28 times as much as the Conservatives, an amount of money that would have been impossible to deliver.

But the main issue was Brexit.  The Conservatives had a definite plan to get out of the European Union by January 31st.   Labour’s plan was more negotiations with the EU, then a second referendum.   There was a referendum in 2016 and those wanting to leave won.   The experience of the last few years has been that many politicians refused to honor the referendum result.  None of them were returned in last week’s election.

It’s the same with Scotland.   A referendum there in 2014 showed the majority of Scots wanting to remain in the United Kingdom.   But Mrs. Nicola Sturgeon refuses to accept that result and wants a second referendum.   If successful, would she allow a third referendum seven years later when disillusionment with the reality of independence sets in?   Doubtful.   The Scottish people are subsidized by the English taxpayer to the tune of almost 2,000 pounds a year per person.   Independence must mean a drop in living standards.   Her hope is that Germany will help.   But Germany is going to have to bail out everybody in Europe now that Britain is leaving.

However, the issue of Scottish independence is not going away.  Boris Johnson has pledged to preserve the union, but even he is going to find that hard.

It’s not just Scotland, either.   Northern Ireland presents another problem.   For the first time ever, there are more Republican MPs from that region.   The Unionists lost out for the first time.   The Irish Republicans (who favor a united socialist Ireland) will be demanding independence at the same time as the Scots.   If either breaks away, British security will be compromised.   The UK’s nuclear base is in Clyde on the Scottish west coast.  There’s also a big military presence in Northern Ireland.

But Brexit is first.   Mr. Johnson has promised to deliver by the end of next month.   There is no impediment in his way.   There will follow eleven months of negotiations with the EU on a trade deal.   The Europeans say that is impossible, it will take at least two years.   With the election, power has shifted.   The Europeans will have to deliver a trade deal by the end of 2020 if they want to keep British trade, and they will want to.   The German car industry relies on Britain for 20% of its sales.   They are not going to throw that away for the sake of teaching Britain a lesson.

The election result should benefit the US, too.   Mr. Johnson has a personal friendship with Mr. Trump.   Both were born in New York City.   Both are known for their hair.   And both are against globalism, preferring to put their country first.

The trend against pollsters may prove the same in 2020, when Donald Trump faces who knows who for the Democrats.   In spite of impeachment (which isn’t going anywhere and seems solely to benefit hundreds of lawyers, all billing the taxpayer) and opinion polls that will show him losing to Elizabeth Buttagieg, or Bernie Biden, Donald Trump is most likely to win.   The longer the impeachment process continues, the more support he has.

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Could Scotland leave the UK . . . and stay in the EU?                                   by Philip Sim, BBC Scotland political reporter, “Would Scots vote for independence?”  18 Dec 2019

This is the big question – after all Nicola Sturgeon doesn’t just want to hold  a referendum, she wants to win one.

Polling data collected by What Scotland Thinks suggests an increase in support for independence – but it generally remains just short of a majority.   Excluding “don’t knows,” the average of polls this year has been 51% No to 49% Yes.   The average for 2018 was 55% to 45% – the same as the 2014 referendum.

Would an independent Scotland stay in the EU?   In practice, Scotland would not become independent the day after a Yes vote – there would have to be a period of transition.    In 2014, the pro-independence side said it would take 18 months to set up an independent Scottish state.   Even if a referendum was held tomorrow, the transition would therefore run beyond the end of 2020 – when the UK is due to complete its exit from the EU.   This means Scotland would leave the EU with the rest of the UK, and would need to apply to join again.

Scotland would have to jump through the same hoops as any state seeking to join the EU, although it would have the advantage of having recently been a member.

Sturgeon’s own party’s prospectus for independence suggests this could take several years, whereas she wants to rejoin the EU as quickly as possible.   The first minister also wants to avoid a hard border between Scotland and England.

(https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50813510)

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TRUMP AND NATO

The Senate foreign relations committee has voted unanimously in favor of a bipartisan bill that would prevent Trump from unilaterally withdrawing the US from Nato.   The isolationist-inclined president is a noted sceptic of the transatlantic military alliance, and last week left the Nato summit in London early after the emergence of a hot mic video in which other world leaders appeared to be mocking him. The bill will now await a slot for a full vote in the Senate.   (The Guardian, 12/12)

The largest arms producers in the USA and Western Europe, including German companies, have further increased their already predominant share of global arms production, as can be seen in the analysis published yesterday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI.   SIPRI analyzed the sales of the world’s Top 100 arms-producers and concluded that 83 percent of their output comes from 70 companies headquartered in countries of the self-proclaimed community of western values.   Whereas the combined sales of the Top 100 arms companies have increased by 4.6 percent, compared to the preceding year, those of the US and West European companies have increased by around 5.2 percent.

Currently the production of military hardware is also massively expanding in Germany.   The armaments division of the Düsseldorf-based Rheinmetall Group was able to boost its sales by 11.8 percent in the first nine months of this year.   The increase of defense budget is promising business in the billions.   German arms exports are also rising dramatically.   (German Foreign Policy, 12/11)

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A 5,000-Year-Old Plan to Erase Debts Is Now a Hot Topic in America                                                                                                                                  In ancient Babylon, a newly enthroned king would declare a jubilee, wiping out the population’s debts.  In modern America, a faint echo of that idea call it jubilee-lite, is catching on.  (Bloomberg, 10 Dec 2019)

Support for write-offs has been driven by Democratic presidential candidates.   Elizabeth Warren says she’d cancel most of the $1.6 trillion in U.S. student loans.   Bernie Sanders would go further -– erasing the whole lot, as well as $81 billion in medical debt.   But it’s coming from other directions too.   In October, one of the Trump administration’s senior student-loan officials resigned, calling for wholesale write-offs and describing the American way of paying for higher education as “nuts.’’    Real-estate firm Zillow cites medical and college liabilities as major hurdles for would-be renters and home buyers.

Moody’s Investors Service listed the headwinds from student debt -– less consumption and investment, more inequality — and said forgiveness would boost the economy like a tax cut.   While the current debate centers on college costs, long-run numbers show how debt has spread through the economy.   The U.S. relies on consumer spending for growth -– but it hasn’t been delivering significantly higher wages.   Household borrowing has filled the gap, with low interest rates making it affordable.   And that’s not unique to America.   Steadily growing debts of one kind or another are weighing on economies all over the world.

The idea that debt can grow faster than the ability to repay, until it unbalances a society, was well understood thousands of years ago, according to Michael Hudson, an economist and historian.   Last year Hudson published “And Forgive Them Their Debts,’’ a study of the ancient Near East where the tradition known as a “jubilee” — wiping the debt-slate clean — has its roots.   He describes how the practice spread through civilizations including Sumer and Babylon, and came to play an important role in the Bible and Jewish law.   Rulers weren’t motivated by charity, Hudson says.   They were being pragmatic — trying to make sure that citizens could meet their own needs and contribute to public projects, instead of just laboring to pay creditors.   And it worked, he says. “Societies that canceled the debts enjoyed stable growth for thousands of years.’’

Forgiveness was good for the economy, would be a modern way of putting it. In an October paper, Moody’s examined how that might apply if America writes off its student debts. (12/10/2019 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-000-old-plan-erase-100000406.html)

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NIGERIAN MONKEYPOX IN ENGLAND                        

A rare viral infection known as monkeypox has been diagnosed in England.   The virus likely was contracted by a person in Nigeria.

Monkeypox could replace smallpox as a most dreaded disease.   The related smallpox virus was eradicated in 1980, thanks to Western technology.   (White people are often condemned for spreading smallpox, but seldom credited with destroying the virus worldwide.)

Open borders allow infected individuals from African nations to invade Western nations.  (Daily Kenn, 12/14/2019)

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A UNITED AFRICA

We Want A United States Of Africa — says Julius Malema
by SG Editor, 16 Dec 2019, iAfrica.com

JOHANNESBURG – Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) leader Julius Malema on Sunday spelled out the party’s ambitious vision to lead the entire African continent to economic freedom.   Speaking at the party’s second national people’s assembly in Nasrec, south of Johannesburg, Malema explained that it was only natural that economic freedom came from the south.  The gathering was expected to come to an end on Monday.

Governing South Africa may have appeared to be a tall order for the EFF, but this was just one dream that formed part of even bolder ambitions.   Malema wants the six-year-old organisation to have a presence everywhere on the continent.   “Our vision is not these small-minded things you’re thinking about; we want to lead Africa. We want a United States of Africa with one currency, economy, and judiciary,” Malema said.

The party’s vision appeared to be inspired by late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi who dreamt of a United States of Africa.   This plan could well be underway with formations from Liberia, Malawi, and Namibia who were among the guests attending the second people’s assembly in Nasrec.
(https://www.iafrica.com/we-want-a-united-states-of-africa-malema/)

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TO THE POINT

  • Authorities in Australia warned that a “mega-blaze” was threatening the north-western suburbs of Sydney.   Covering about 400,000 hectares, the bushfire has already destroyed over 20 homes and is moving into the Blue Mountains area, a popular tourist destination.   A heatwave is not helping; the Bureau of Meteorology advised that the record for the highest-ever temperature could be broken this week.  (The Economist, 12/17)
  • America’s defence secretary said he needs to speak with his Turkish counterpart about remarks made by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.   On Sunday Mr. Erdogan issued a new threat:   that it may shut down America’s Incirlik air base in eastern Anatolia.   A worsening chill between the two NATO allies has made America jittery about the nuclear warheads it stores there.   (The Economist, 12/17)
  • Chief Advisor To Turkish President Erdoğan:   ‘The Islamic World Should Prepare An Army For Palestine From Outside Palestine’ (MEMRI 12/2)
  • A special court in Pakistan has sentenced former military leader Pervez Musharraf to death on charges of treason and subversion of the constitution.   Mr. Musharraf seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999 and ruled until 2008.   The sentence was largely seen as symbolic, as the former leader is currently in exile in Dubai.   (The Economist, 12/17)
  • Protests in India, against a citizenship law designed to exclude Muslims from naturalisation, escalated in their fifth day.   In Delhi police clashed with protesters around a Muslim university; at least 100 were injured and buses were set on fire.   Other campuses around the country erupted in anger. In India’s north-east, where immigration is generally opposed, six people have been killed.   (The Economist, 12/16)
  • Chief Advisor To Turkish President Erdoğan:   ‘The Islamic World Should Prepare An Army For Palestine From Outside Palestine’ (MEMRI 12/2)
  • 65 of Britain’s MPs returned to the House of Commons last week are minorities.   That’s 10%.   Take away the 59 Scots, and the percentage will increase to almost 20%.   There were none a little over twenty years ago.  This reflects Britain’s changing demographics, the result of massive immigration from the underdeveloped world since World War II.
  • I watched the British election on Sky News, a British 24/7 news channel available on “Watch Free”, a US streaming service.   A day or two later, I was surprised to read that only 46, 000 people watched the election on Sky.  The news company spent a small fortune on John Bercow, controversial former Speaker of the House of Commons, a commentator for the evening, who seemed to spend most of his time justifying his performance as Speaker.

ANGLO MIGRATION

Friends of ours are leaving South Africa and moving to Australia.   They are not the first and certainly won’t be the last.

The “new” South Africa that came into being with the end of apartheid, just under 25 years ago, has become one of the most violent countries in the world.   The white farmers who live there, producing most of the region’s food, have been hit really hard by all the violence.   Hundreds have been murdered in the new South Africa.   Another friend’s grandson was murdered at 18 – for a cell phone!

Young families have to seek greater security for their children.   Australia is one of the best countries to go to, for now at least.

What’s been happening in South Africa and other countries before it, has been one of the minor news items in the world, a blip in the global disorder.   But facts are facts – as the British gave independence to their various colonies around the globe, so Brits who had settled there, contributing greatly to economic development, were forced to leave.   This was especially true in Africa.   This mass migration of people has been really bad for Africa and for Africans.   Their British “masters” have simply been replaced by Chinese bosses who often treat them with contempt.

South Africa’s white population was 20% of the population 25 years ago;  today, it’s down to 10%.

We may think that this migration is over, with South Africa being the last country to expel the whites.   It isn’t.   As South Africa’s majority black population took over the country, so, in the next few decades, new majorities in western nations will take over their new countries and push the original occupants out.

This is prophesied in Deuteronomy 28, the blessings and cursings chapter of the Bible.   The Israelites were told by God that if they obeyed Him, they would be greatly blessed; but, if they turned away from Him, they would suffer the negative consequences.   The modern Israelites are suffering these consequences now and will continue to do so, unless they repent and turn back to God.

16 “Cursed shall you be in the city, and cursed shall you be in the country.  17 “Cursed shall be your basket and your kneading bowl.  18 “Cursed shall be the [a]fruit of your body and the produce of your land, the increase of your cattle and the offspring of your flocks.  19 “Cursed shall you be when you come in, and cursed shall you be when you go out.   (Deut. 28:16-19)

 “The alien who is among you shall rise higher and higher above you, and you shall come down lower and lower.  44 He shall lend to you, but you shall not lend to him; he shall be the head, and you shall be the tail. ” (vs. 43-44)

The Anglo-Saxon-Celtic peoples are amongst the modern Israelites. At the end of World War II, a little over 70 years ago, they dominated the world.   The British Empire had emerged intact from the global conflict, which it had fought for six years; the United States had emerged from the war as a global superpower.   A constant theme of the last seven decades has seen these same Anglo-Saxon-Celtic peoples lose their power and prestige.     They will continue to do so.

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REVOLUTION IN THE AIR?

France has seen a great deal of violence the last three weekends and is expected to see more again this coming weekend.

The primary cause was increased fuel taxes to help cover an environmental project.   It was enough to trigger off the worst rioting in decades.

What the French elite, including President Macron, fail to understand is that ordinary people are suffering.  They are finding it harder and harder to make ends meet.  Higher fuel costs mean higher food costs as food has to be transported.

The rioting spread to neighboring Belgium and there is speculation there could be rioting elsewhere, including in neighboring Germany.   Once again, governments are out of touch with the reality of day to day living.

The following is a joke somebody sent me from Germany, a country not noted for its sense of humor:

“An African refugee is walking through the streets of Nuremberg – a well preserved medieval walled city. He fronts up to the first person he meets and says, “I would like to thank you for taking me in. For clothing me, feeding me, giving me healthcare and letting me stay.”

“But I’m not German, I’m Albanian,” the pedestrian responds.

The African walks on undeterred, and meets another pedestrian: “I would like to thank you for taking me in, clothing me, feeding me, giving me healthcare and letting me stay.”

“But I’m not German, I’m Turkish…”

The African tries once more, with a third pedestrian. “Thank you for taking me in, clothing me…”

“But I’m not German, I’m Arabic.”

“Then where are all the bloody Germans?” the African refugee asks.

The Arab looks at his watch, shrugs and says, “Probably at work.” (end of joke)

The cost of housing, clothing, feeding and educating all the refugees falls on the German tax-payer. It’s the same throughout the western world, in every single western nation.

Brexit started as a means to hit back against the system.   51.7% of the British people supported the “rebellion” against the ruling elite. Trump soon followed with victory in the US election.   The reality of what was behind Trump’s victory still has not been appreciated by the liberal intellectual community that has dominated the country for decades.   The reality is summed up in the title of a new book by Anthony Scaramucci:   “Trump – the Blue-Collar President,”   Trump was / is America’s revolution.   If his revolution fails, we should expect a worse one up ahead.

The same with Brexit.   If the British Establishment manages to thwart Brexit, as is certainly a possibility, the frustrations that ordinary people are experiencing could explode in something far worse.

Populist parties exist throughout the western democracies today – unless people see an improvement in their circumstances, we could see sweeping electoral changes ahead.   This could start in France.

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AN AGE OF ANGER

During a dinner in Washington, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde sent a warning to politicians whose decisions could create “an age of anger.”   She said:  “Imagine what the world might look like if we fail to build and adapt.   We could live in an age of anger.”

But this lesson is best learnt from Mr. Trump, the US President, who successfully harnessed the anger of America’s rustbelt communities to propel himself into the White House.  (BBC, 12/6)

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ARABS TIGHTEN BELTS

“A wave of economic austerity is squeezing the Arab world’s middle class, pushing a segment of society that is key to growth and stability into making painful cut-backs and fueling discontent.

“Egyptians say they are taking second jobs and dining out less often. Jordanians trying to make ends meet are pulling children from private schools.   In Tunisia, hundreds of thousands of civil servants staged a one-day strike last month to demand a pay increase.”  (“Arab Middle Class Tightens Belt,” Jared Malsin, WSJ, 12/6)

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IRAN AND ISRAEL PREPARING FOR WAR

Iranian leaders stepped up their war of words against Israel and the United States over the weekend while new information shows both the Israel Defense Forces and the Islamic Republic are actively preparing for a multi-front war in Israel.

The new war of words started when Iran’s so-called moderate president Hassan Rouhani told participants in an Islamic conference that Israel was a “cancerous tumor” and “a fake regime” founded by Western nations.

While calling upon the Islamic world to establish a “joint force” that could win the “battle against criminals,” Rouhani claimed Israel had killed and displaced the (non-existing) “historic nation of Palestine.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu responded to Rouhani’s belligerent rhetoric by warning Iran that Israel knows how to defend itself against the “murderous Iranian regime.”   (“Iran and Israel preparing for multi-front war,”  (Yochanan Visser,  Israel Today, 11/28)

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BREXIT — THE WORST DEAL IN HISTORY

This Brexit “deal” is anything but good for the nation.

This “deal” will cost the British taxpayer £60 billion; require that the British still comply with EU rules without having any say in what those will be, and worst of all, it permits the British to leave the EU only if the EU agrees.   It commits the British effectively to subjugation by the EU in perpetuity, with no recourse should the British change their mind. It is a prison.   It is also the first step of the EU toward its dream of global governance: unaccountable, untransparent, unelected by the public, and with no way out.

There is still a way out of this mess; an easy alternative.   The solution is No Deal.   Without any further action, the UK’s membership of the EU will lapse on March 29, 2019, and unless that majority can unite around a viable alternative, we will leave.   Even better, according to a House of Lords report, there would be no legal obligation for the UK to make any payment as part of a financial settlement.   (David Brown, Gatestone, 12/4)

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ANGELA MERKEL STEPS DOWN

Friday Angela Merkel, German Chancellor since 2005, stepped down as Chairman of her political party, the Christian Democratic Union.   She will remain Chancellor for the time being, but relinquishing her chairman role will likely result in change at the chancellery in the not too distant future.

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PROFOUND COMMENTS

Europe today is not afraid of Vladimir Putin reaching the Rhine. Europe is afraid of Africa and the Middle East reaching the Danube.  (“The Never-Trumpers are never coming back,” PB, 7/6)

A “sense of guilt” for colonialism is debasing the West from within, according to Professor Bruce Gilley, and authoritarian regimes such as Iran, Russia, China and Turkey are profiting from this weakness.

The Romans called it damnatio memoriae:   the damnation of memory that resulted in destroying the portraits and even the names of the fallen emperors.   The same process is now underway in the West about its colonial past.   The cultural elite in the West now seem so haunted by feelings of imperialist guilt that they are no longer confident that our civilization is something to be proud of.  (“Is guilt killing the West from within?”  Giulio MeottiGatestone, 7/6)

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ITALY CLOSES DOOR TO MIGRANTS

In Italy, rising popular sentiment against immigration has found a forceful spokesman and leader in Deputy PM Matteo Salvini, who has refused entry to Italian ports to migrant rescue ships, saying “NGO rescue ships will only see Italy on postcards.” 

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ANN COULTER PREDICTS END OF REPUBLICAN PARTY

“New York Times best-selling author and populist conservative columnist Ann Coulter says the Republican Party is “just at the point of extinction without a shot” due to mass illegal and legal immigration to the country that continues importing more than 1.5 million immigrants a year.

In an interview with SiriusXM Patriot’s Breitbart News Daily, Coulter told Breitbart News Editor-in-Chief Alex Marlow that the United States — due to mass immigration and rapid demographic shifts — will be electorally dominated by Democrats indefinitely in “about five more years,” calling Trump “the last Republican president.” (Breitbart 11/28)

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MILITARY SPENDING

According to SIPRI’s 2016 data:

  • Only 4 out of 28 NATO countries — the United States, France, Greece and Estonia — pay above the 2 percent GDP
  • If under-paying countries began reaching the 2 percent threshold, total European nato-military spending would rise from $254 billion to $328 billion.
  • In comparison, U.S. military spending was $611 billion, China’s $215 billion, and Russia’s $69 billion.
  • If Germany spent 2 percent of its GDP on defense, its military spending would parallel Russia’s — $69 billion!

SIPRI stands for Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

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CHANGING RELATIONSHIPS

The US Congress is about to come out with a statement stating that the Saudi Arabian Crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, ordered the death of the Washington Post correspondent, Jamal Khashoggi. Mr. Khashoggi was assassinated in the Saudi Arabian embassy in Turkey on October 2nd.

Additionally, the US has requested the extradition of the top executive of the major Chinese company, Huawei.

“New York (CNN Business) — The arrest of a top Huawei executive has sent stock markets plunging around the world and threatens to derail the tenuous trade truce between the United States and China.

“Meng Wanzhou, the Chinese tech company’s chief financial officer, was detained in Vancouver on Saturday at the request of US authorities.” (12/6)

Thirdly, Mr. Trump ignored President Putin of Russia at the G20 summit last weekend.

Three major relationships, with Saudi Arabia, China and Russia are seriously threatened by these actions.

Interestingly, these three countries are the top oil producing countries in the world, after the United States.   Saudi Arabia and Russia are already co-operating on oil production, which will affect the global price.

It should also be noted that all three are murderous regimes.   The Saudi and Russian governments think nothing of murdering opponents in other parts of the world; while the Chinese have their gulags (sorry, re-education camps).

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OF INTEREST

Donald and Melania Trump did not recite The Apostles’ Creed nor did they sing the hymns during George H.W. Bush’s funeral Wednesday, sparking criticism of the president who claims to be Presbyterian and is portrayed as an evangelical Christian by many conservatives.   Video shows the first couple standing in silence alongside three former presidents and first ladies who all recited the creed.

Ivanka Trump also participated, despite having converted to Judaism.   The Apostles’ Creed is considered Christianity’s core prayer, at the heart of the Christian doctrine.   The version of the creed at the service was that of the Episcopal Church, to which the Bush family belongs.   The Apostles’ Creed is Trinitarian in structure with sections affirming belief in God the Father, Jesus Christ His Son and the Holy Spirit.   The Apostles’ Creed was based on Christian theological understanding of the Canonical gospels, the letters of the New Testament and to a lesser extent the Old Testament.   Its basis appears to be the old Roman Creed known also as the Old Roman Symbol.   (mailonline 12/6)